Joshs Finance

The Dow is flat on Monday after recovering from drop of nearly 180 points – CNBC

Market pause is ‘perfectly normal’ after four-week win streak, Carson Group’s Detrick says

Monday’s market moves are nothing out of the ordinary coming off of four weeks of consecutive gains for stocks, says Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group.

“After the first four-week win streak of the year for stocks, a little pause to refresh is perfectly normal,” he said.

The moves signal more of a midcycle slowdown versus the onset of a recession, Detrick said, pointing to the strong labor market and signs of peaking inflation despite slowdown fears in China and disappointing New York manufacturing activity.

— Samantha Subin

Bed Bath & Beyond jumps 12% as meme stock revival continues

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The retail trading frenzy around Bed Bath & Beyond is not slowing down.

Shares of the company were up more than 12% on Monday morning, bringing its August gains to nearly 200%.

There have already been nearly 50 million shares of the stock traded today, according to FactSet. From April to June of this year, Bed Bath & Beyond had zero trading days with that much volume.

Many large funds have bet against Bed Bath & Beyond. Nearly half of the company’s stock is sold short, according to FactSet.

— Jesse Pound

The odds of a soft landing are increasing, Credit Suisse’s Golub says

The recent market rally has further room to run, Credit Suisse’s Jonathan Golub told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Monday.

Technology shares and highly shorted names continue to win at this moment in time and those are the stocks that typically do well coming out of a recession, Golub said.

“I believe this but also this is what the market is saying, the odds of a soft landing are higher now than they were two, three, four months ago,” he said. “Now, I’m not saying that we’re going to have a soft landing, but the odds are increasing. That’s what’s driving the market up.”

— Samantha Subin

Dan Loeb’s Third Point reveals Disney position

Shares of Disney rose slightly on Monday after hedge fund manager Dan Loeb revealed that his Third Point fund taken a new stake in the company.

In a letter to Disney CEO Bob Chapek, obtained by CNBC’s David Faber, Loeb raises the prospect of Disney spinning off the ESPN sports networks, among other suggestions.

Shares of Disney were last up 1.4%.

— Jesse Pound

Energy leads declines

Various Halliburton equipment being stored at the equipment yard in Alvarado, Texas.

Cooper Neill | Reuters

Energy stocks led the declines in early morning trading, with the sector down more than 4%.

Shares of names like Halliburton, Marathon Oil and Diamondback Energy slid more than 5% each.

Financials stocks Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Citigroup moved 1% lower. Materials also slumped 1%, with Nucor and Mosaic down more than 3% each. Freeport-McMoRan dropped 4.6%.

— Samantha Subin

Stocks open lower

Stocks opened lower on Monday, led by shares of energy and financials, which fell more than 3% and 1%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 169 points, or 0.5%, while the S&p 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 0.46% and 0.23%, respectively.

— Samantha Subin

New York area manufacturing posts startling decline in August, survey shows

Manufacturing activity has collapsed in the New York area, according to a report released Monday.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August plunged to a reading of minus-31.3, a 42-point slide fueled by sharply lower new orders and shipments. The index measures the difference between businesses seeing expansion and contraction. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a reading of 5.

That was the lowest reading since May 2020 and both the second-lowest reading overall and the second-biggest plunge in history for a data series going back to July 2001. In addition to the massive decline in general conditions, the shipments index was minus-49.4 and the new orders index was minus-35.8.

Employment also remained mildly in expansion, with the index at 7.4, but that was a 10.6-point drop from July.

There was some hope for the future, as the index for general business conditions six months from now rose to 2.1, an 8.3-point gain.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, warned not to take too much away from the dismal report.

“As always, remember that the Empire State is a small regional survey and it is not definitive evidence of anything,” he wrote. “It is not a reliable indicator of the national ISM manufacturing index. We’re now very curious about the other regional reports for August, due over the next few weeks. Our bet is that none of them will be as startlingly terrible as this one.”

—Jeff Cox

Energy and technology set to open lower

Few stocks remained in positive territory in the premarket on Monday, with energy and technology leading those declines.

A drop in oil prices weighed down energy stocks as weak data from China, which is the world’s largest crude importer, spurred concerns of a slowdown.

Most technology names also remained in the red, led by shares of Apple, Microsoft and Amazon. Despite the downward trend, shares of Analog Devices rose about 2.7% in the premarket.

On the banking front, shares of Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley all moved about 1% lower.

— Samantha Subin

Stock futures slump

Stock futures slipped on Monday ahead of market open. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 224 points, or 0.66%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures shed 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively.

— Samantha Subin

Further pain lies ahead despite summer bounce, Canaccord Genuity says

A strong summer rally saw the S&P 500 bounce 16% from its June low but investors should refrain from chasing “whooshes” or “outsized rallies,” Canaccord Genuity says.

Highly oversold conditions and fears of both the Fed and an economic recession made a strong case for a summer rebound, analyst Tony Dwyer said in a note to clients Monday. That said, further uncertainty lies ahead and investors should look to cut back on increased risk brought on by the summer bounce.

“The strength of the summer rally has caused some momentum-based indicators to suggest the worst of the bear market is over, but the macro backdrop of yield curve inversions, real liquidity, and further Fed rate hikes argues the opposite,” he said.

— Samantha Subin

A ‘Goldilocks’ last few weeks

While the rally appears to be taking a pause Monday, the bulls have had quite a run of good news lately. At last check, the S&P 500 was up more than 17% from its mid-June low, cutting its loss for the year by more than half with the benchmark now down 10% for 2022.

Tavis McCourt, institutional equity strategist for Raymond James, summed it up this way in a note Sunday:

“An absolute ‘Goldilocks’ two weeks for those paying attention to economic data as last week’s ludicrously strong July jobs number was followed up by weaker than expected CPI, PPI (headline and core), export and import prices, sending the S&P 500 up another ~3.2% with small/mid-caps even more. As central bankers took to the airwaves to try to jawbone financial conditions tighter, equity markets continued their rally and credit spreads continued to tighten, as it seems likely inflation has peaked barring another dramatic supply disruption. We would note that in the post-WWII world of the 1940s, which we still think is the closest historical economic analogy to today, equities bottomed as inflation peaked, but remained largely range-bound for about 4 years before reaching new highs.”

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—John Melloy

Oil slips on global growth concerns

Oil prices tumbled Monday following weak economic data out of China, prompting demand slowdown concerns.

West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. oil benchmark, shed 4.5% to trade at $87.94 per barrel. Global benchmark Brent crude fell 4.5% to $93.71 per barrel.

“The figures from China really are a concern,” said Oanda’s Craig Erlam.

“That doesn’t bode well for oil demand especially when the country remains so committed to zero Covid. And with cases continuing to rise, the downward pressure on oil prices could intensify,” he added.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), which tracks the S&P 500 energy sector, fell 3% in the premarket.

Halliburton, Valero, Devon Energy, Occidental and Marathon Oil were all off by more than 3%.

— Pippa Stevens

China’s central bank unexpectedly cuts rates

The People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, surprised investors overnight by cutting the rate on its one-year medium-term lending facility on 400 billion yuan ($59.3 billion) to 2.75% from 2.85%. The PBOC also lowered another key rate, its seven-day reverse repo rate, by 10 basis points to 2%.

Fred Imbert, Abigail Ng

Disappointing data out of China

Sentiment was somewhat dampened Monday after the Chinese government released economic data that missed the mark.

Overnight, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said retail sales grew by 2.7% in July. That’s well be low a Reuters forecast of a 5% gain. It’s also a slowdown from June’s 3.1% advance. Industrial production, meanwhile, rose by 3.8%, also missing a 4.6% estimate.

Fred Imbert, Evelyn Cheng

European markets mixed after cautious gains last week

European markets were muted on Monday morning, struggling to build on a positive trend seen at the close of trading last week.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 hovered 0.1% higher in early trade, with health care stocks adding 0.7% while autos slid 0.9%.

European stocks closed higher last Friday as investors digested economic data from the region including a preliminary U.K. second-quarter GDP reading, July inflation prints out of France, Spain and Italy, and euro zone industrial production for June.

– Elliot Smith

CNBC Pro: Fund manager says the bear market rally won’t last and reveals how to position for it

CNBC Pro: Top tech investor Paul Meeks reveals whether it’s time to go all-in on tech

Tech stocks were among the worst hit in the first half of the year as investors fled to safety amid a broad market-sell off. But investor interest in the sector appears to be picking up once more, begging the question — is it time to jump back into the sector?

Top tech investor and portfolio manager Paul Meeks shared his strategy for trading the sector, what he’s watching in the market and his best ideas in the space.

Find out more on CNBC Pro.

— Zavier Ong

Earnings season soon coming to a close

More than 90% of companies in the S&P 500 have now reported earnings, and some 78% of those names have posted better-than-expected profits, according to Refinitiv. Those results have put overall S&P 500 earnings on pace to have grown by 9.7% from the year-earlier period.

— Tanaya Macheel

What to expect from retail earnings this week

As investors await quarterly financial results from retail giants, Wall Street is expecting several earnings misses and yearly outlook cuts as companies continue to grapple with macro headwinds like high inflation, global economic uncertainty and supply chain issues.

Walmart and Home Depot will be the first to report, on Tuesday. Last quarter Walmart cut profit estimates because of rising food prices, while Home Depot raised its full-year outlook.

Check out CNBC Pro for more on what to expect from retail earnings this week.

— Tanaya Macheel

S&P 500 tests its bear case

On Friday the S&P 500 closed above 4,231, the 50% retracement from its peak to trough. BTIG technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky has said a close above that level would mean this is a new bull market and not merely a bear market bounce.

The broad market index traded above that level on Thursday as well but did not close above it. 

The S&P 500 gained 9% in July and, as of Friday’s close, was up 3.6% for the month.

— Tanaya Macheel

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